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基于模糊层次分析法的风险决策研究

时间:2020-01-16 19:03来源:毕业论文
分析层次分析法和模糊综合评价法的实质、使用范围以及优缺点等性质,接着重点了解了模糊层次分析法的意义和相关术语。紧接着根据模糊层次分析法的4个使用步骤来确定了在解决问

摘要本文致力于对模糊层次分析法的风险决策研究。首先,本文分析层次分析法和模糊综合评价法的实质、使用范围以及优缺点等性质,接着重点了解了模糊层次分析法的意义和相关术语。紧接着根据模糊层次分析法的4个使用步骤来确定了在解决问题时应遵循的方法。44082

将理论运用到实际中才是我们研究的最终目的,接下来笔者将结合生活中公交站的选址问题来确定影响因素,推理、计算出使社会、经济、技术利益最大化的数学模型。

为了寻找最佳解决方案,建立最优模型,必将有以下步骤:确定影响因素、计算权重、计算一致性检验、确定模糊矩阵、计算模糊矩阵等。

    最后,风险决策也被称为统计型决策或随机型决策,是决策科学中的一个重要问题。由于风险决策存在概率性以及模糊不确定性,又鉴于模糊层次分析法是一种有效的定性分析与定量分析相结合的多目标决策方法,故本文利用模糊层次分析法来解决两个实际生活中的问题,结合实际,解决问题,才是科学研究的最终目的。

  This paper is devoted to the risk decision research of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process .

First, this paper analyzes the essence of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, using range and advantages and disadvantages, such as nature, and then focus on the significance of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and related terms. Then according to the used four steps of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the methods should be followed in dealing with problems.

    Would apply theory to practice is the ultimate goal of our research, the author will combine the bus station in life's location problem to determine the factors of reasoning, maximize benefits to society, economy, technology calculation mathematical model.

    In order to find the best solution, the optimal model is set up, will have the following steps: determine the influencing factors and weight calculation, consistency check calculation, determine the fuzzy matrix, fuzzy matrix, etc.

    Finally, the risk decision, also known as statistical model or random decisions, is an important problem in decision science. Due to the existence and probabilistic risk decision and fuzzy uncertainty, and in view of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (ahp) is an effective combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of multi-objective decision method, this paper using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (ahp) to solve the problem of In real life, combined with the actual, solve the problem, is the ultimate goal of scientific research.

毕业论文关键词:随机型决策:模糊层次分析法:多目标决策方法

 Keyword: Random decision;Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy;Process Multiple Objectives Decision Making

  目录

摘  要 1

1. 引言 1

2.模糊层次分析法的提出及介绍....................2 

        2.1 模糊层次分析法的提出 2

2.2模糊层次分析法解决问题的步骤: 2

2.3 建立数学模型 3

2.4各风险因素大小权重的确定 4

2.5 各方案风险因素模糊矩阵的确定 5

2.6各投资方案整体风险程度的确定 6

2.7 方案的比选 6

3. 对于公交站选址问题的实例分析 6

3.1 各层权重计算与一致性检验 基于模糊层次分析法的风险决策研究:http://www.lwfree.com/shuxue/lunwen_45252.html

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